What would life be like without winter?
What if winter were no longer cold? What if there was little or no snow for skiing, no hard frosts to kill off insect pests or bring out the sap of a maple tree to make that delicious syrup? How would polar bears and other animals that need the cold survive?
There is no more compelling time keeper of the urgency of climate change than the condition of the Arctic. Sea ice in the Arctic is like Earth's air conditioner - it helps reflect sunlight back into space, as well as regulating the complex pattern of global weather and temperatures.
It is also the habitat for the majestic polar bear and numerous other species specially adapted for its environment. The rapidity with which Arctic ice is disappearing is the stopwatch against which we must measure our action to stop global warming.
And the latest reports tell us that we must accelerate our action to arrest climate change - rapidly.
According to a May 3, 2007 report from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSICDC), arctic sea ice is melting significantly faster than computer models of climate calculate and is about 30 years ahead of predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Dr. Ted Scambos, an author of the study for NSIDC, said that the ocean at the top of the world could be free or nearly free of summer sea ice by 2020--three decades sooner than the IPCC's forecast of 2050. The Arctic has been losing summer ice at about 9% per decade since 1979, while models on average produce a melting rate less than half that figure. Dr. Scambos said that "the IPCC report was very careful, very thorough and cautious, so they erred on the side of what would certainly occur as opposed to what might occur,"
Many Americans envision global warming as a gradual rise in temperatures, a "soft-landing," and current political leaders, even those who are considered environmental champions, have only encouraged that view. But the sudden, complete loss of sea ice at the top of the planet within the next 13 years could usher in an equally sudden change in global weather patterns, a "climate snap." It would also, almost certainly, spell extinction for the polar bear.
The time for action is now. Help us spread the "Fight Global Warming - Keep Winter Cold!!" message by joining a Polar Bear Plunge near you - or organizing one yourself!
Read the National Center for Atmospheric Research press release
Below are the key conclusions of the study. (Access to the full study is restricted to dues paying members.)
Conclusions
[24] Observations indicate a downward trend in September Arctic sea ice extent from 1953-2006 that is larger than any of the IPCC AR4 simulations, and current summer minima are approximately 30 years ahead of the ensemble mean model forecast. However, the multi-model mean downward trend is still substantial. If this trend is a true representation of forced change by greenhouse gas loading, we conclude that 33-38% of the observed trend is externally forced. For the more recent period 1979-2006, and despite apparent strong impacts of natural processes, these estimates rise to 47-57%. To the extent that the evidence presented here supports the contention that the model GHG response is too weak, the externally forced component may be larger. Either way, it appears that impacts of GHG loading on Arctic sea ice in September are strong, and growing, and have also impacted March ice extent. By contrast, while both observed and modeled Antarctic winter trends are small, few models give reasonable assessments of Antarctic summer ice extent.
[25] The IPCC AR4 models indicate with the "business as usual" SRES A1B scenario, an essentially ice-free Arctic Ocean in September (less than 1.0 × 106 km2) may be realized anywhere from 2050 to well beyond 2100. However, if the models as a group underestimate the impacts of GHG loading, this transition to a new Arctic state is more likely to occur well within this century. The Arctic has often been viewed as a region where the effects of GHG loading will be manifested early on, especially through loss of sea ice. The sensitivity of this region may well be greater than the models suggest.
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